Nuclear hype in Poland - sorted
List of Polish Nuclear promises with the sources and current status of the projects
There have been over 100 nuclear reactors announced to be deployed in Poland, of every possible sizes. And there will be even more!
The project most advanced in the permitting process are the 3 governmental AP1000 units in the Choczewo municipality - this the only projetct with the finished EIA report and completed cross-border Espoo consultations. There are also three OSGE BWRX-300 projects that are in the beginning phases of the environmental field research and one PGE PAK APR-1400 project at the very beginning of the permitting process (even before the EIA reaserch phase). All other projects are just early propositions and concepts, mostly without a precise location or even clear investors. However, there are talks of potential future nuclear application in the industrial and heating sectors
Starting with the micros.
USNC MMR 5MWe 15MWth
Synthos
In the October of 2020, Synthos signed a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation (USNC) to develop a microreactor-based decarbonization systems for industrial installations of the Synthos Group. Synthos MMR project Was supposed to be used in the high temperature electrolysis hydrogen production project which was being developed at the same time.. Synthos applied for the EU IPCEI Hy2Tech program funding(EU IPCEI Hy2Tech was established to encourage reaserch and deployment of new hydrogen solutions) with the resources being granted.
As for today, no more steps were taken in the Synthos MMR project, so we won’t be counting this
Sources:
https://nuclear.pl/wiadomosci,news,20110502,0,0.html
Legnica
In February 2023, Legnicka Specjalna Strefa Ekonomiczna (LSSE*), Hyundai Engineering (HEC) and USNC, signed a MoU to delploy a USNC’s MMR in Legnica.
There were no statements regarding the number of reactors that are planned, but USCN usually deploys them in pairs, so for the sake of this paper, lets assume 2x5Mwe/15MWth(with the understanding that the final number might change).
* Legnica Special Economic Zone
Source:
https://lsse.eu/startuje-wspolpraca-lsse-z-hyundai-i-usnc/
Azoty Police
In March29, 2023, Grupa Azoty, Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation (USNC) and West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, signed a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) to delploy a USNC‘s MMR in the Police nitrogen factory. The is projected to be 30MWth so we can probably assume this is also going to be a pair of 2 USNC’s MMR reactors , in this case implemented as research units.
This is to be the first step on the way to the full-scale implementation of nuclear energy for chemical processes and the generation of steam and hydrogen at the facilities of Grupa Azoty Police.
Source:
Last Energy 20MWe
Enea
In June 2022, polish energy company, the Enea Group signed a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Last Energy. The agreement assumes cooperation to deploy small modular nuclear power plants. The number of projects was not specified, nor the locations.
Sources:
https://www.green-news.pl/2755-smr-enea-last-energy-reaktory
Legnica SSE
In July 2022, Legnicka Specjalna Strefa Ekonomiczna (LSSE), Wroclaw company DB Energy and Last Energy Polska, signed a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) to deploy 10 of Last Energy’s 20 MWe micro reactors in LSSE.
Note that this is the second(chronologically first) project set in the city of Legnica, which makes it rather unlikely that both will be realized in the same place.
Sources:
https://www.lastenergy.com/case-studies/lsse
https://legnica.naszemiasto.pl/podpisano-porozumienie-w-sprawie-budowy-elektrowni/ar/c15-8928021
https://biznesalert.pl/last-energy-smr-atom-pod-legnica-energetyka/
Katowice SSE
In March 2023 Katowicka Specjalna Strefa Ekonomiczna (KSSE*), and Last Energy Polska signed Memorandum of understanding (MoU) to deploy 10 Last Energy’s 20 MWe micro reactors in KSSE.
Launch of the first one is set for the year 2026, which is simply not possible given the permitting process. From the preliminary EIA application it can take at least 4-5 years until completion.
*Katowice Special Economic Zone
Locations
Last Energy has requested 3 applications for the fundamental decision” or “decision-in-principle” (Decyzja Zasadnicza in PL), on the aera of City Jaworzno, City Częstochowa and Jaworze near Bielsko-Biała, all in the Silesian Voivodeship.
Sources:
https://www.lastenergy.com/case-studies/ksse
https://nuclear.pl/wiadomosci,news,23091202,0,0.html
Now the small ones.
DAVID 50MWe 175 MWth
In March 2023, EKOPARK.SA signed a tripartite agreement with WITKOWITZ ATOMICA a.c. ("WITKOWITZ") and BRENSSON POWER a.s. ("BRENSSON").
WITKOWITZ and BRESSON are co-authors and co-owners of the "Energy source using low-enriched nuclear fuel for heat production" technology, registered with the Czech Industrial Property Office, based on the DAVID small modular reactor, developed by its own design office CZECHATOM. The Group cooperates with numerous industrial, scientific and state institutions in the Czech Republic and Ukraine, involved in research and development of nuclear energy.
Sources:
https://biznes.pap.pl/espi/en/reports/view/2,530349
Lidzbark Warmiński
In July 2023, the mayor of Lidzbark Warmiński and Robert Olejnik, CEO of the EKOPARK SA, signed a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) to design an energy system for the city, that would be based of the Czech SMR technology.
There were no declarations as to how many reactors will be built, so we will assume only one.
Sources:
https://www.money.pl/gielda/komunikaty/6926219004982913.html
NuScale 4-12x(77MWe 250 MWth)
There is no location specified, but there are 2 potential investors: Unimot and KGHM.
Both of them signeg MoU with NuScale in September 2021.
UNIMOT
UNIMOT is not going to be the investor of the NuScale NPPs, but it is willing to create a platform for matching potential investors.
“As Unimot, we are interested in the promotion of this technology, we want to look for potential customers from the private sector for NuScale, especially those with high energy consumption and a combined heat and power plant" – said Adam Sikorski, CEO of Unimot, In an interview with PAP Biznes
A there are no officially announced investors, nor projects, we only assumed one set of 4 NuScale units.
Sources:
https://biznesalert.pl/unimot-rozwaza-wprowadzenie-technologii-smr-w-polsce/
https://twitter.com/unimot_sa/status/1441310933322813440
KGHM and Tauron
Polish copper mining company KGHM is a second biggest energy consumer in Poland. The MoU signed in 2021 lays out a plan to deploy nuclear technology as the repowering of existing coal plants or the development of completely new nuclear energy sources in the form of 1 to 12 SMR modules, with a capacity of 77MW each.
In April 2022, Tauron, polish energy company, signed a MoU with KGHM regarding the cooperation in the construction of a low-emission energy sources, including the use of small modular nuclear reactors. It is unclear whether it involves the NuScale technology, however KGHM has not signed any memorandums with companies other than NuScale.
There were no announcements about how many reactor sets are planned, so we should assume only one set of 4 to 12 reactors. There may be more projects on the horizon however, as Taurons long term district heating plans seem to involve nuclear power.
Please note however that its unclear if Tauron is planning to use the NuScale technology, as there are other systems that have higher TRL or might suit Tauron needs better (for example possibility of close proximity to urban centres or needed higher or lower thermal power).
That’s why we’re again, assuming only one set of 6x77Mwe NuScale reactors for KGHM.
KGHM has started the pre-licencig procedure in polish nuclear regulator PAA.
From their filing we can learn that KGHMhas requested and was given a “fundamental decision” or “decision-in-principle” (Decyzja Zasadnicza in PL), an official governmental acceptance for the NPP project of a given location and technology. It is the first formal step as recognized by current polish law, that is needed for all NPPs projects (and only for NPPs projects). The location is the municipalities of Lubasz and Wieleń near Wronki. Most likely, it may be Klempicz, where the Warta-Klempicz nuclear power plant was planned during the communist era.
Sources:
https://kghm.com/pl/wyrazenie-zgody-na-zawarcie-porozumienia-o-rozwoju-energetyki-jadrowej
https://www.gov.pl/web/paa/wniosek-kghm-w-sprawie-smr-zlozony-do-paa
https://www.gov.pl/web/paa/wniosek-kghm-w-sprawie-smr-zlozony-do-paa
https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huta_Miedzi_G%C5%82og%C3%B3w
https://nuclear.pl/wiadomosci,news,23091202,0,0.html
NUWARD 2x(170MWe 540MWth)
In July 2023, Respect Energy and EDF have signed a cooperation agreement regarding the exclusive joint development of nuclear energy projects in Poland based on the SMR NUWARD™ technology. There was no declaration about how many reactors will be built, but NUWARD is designed to work in pairs, so we can assume 2.
Source:
https://respect.energy/respect-energy-i-edf-podpisaly-porozumienie-o-rozwijaniu-projektow-energetyki-jadrowej-w-polsce/
BWRX-300 300MWe 870MWth
Initial phase: the beginning of cooperation with GEH, ZE PAK, ORLEN and CIECH
In October 2019, Synthos S.A. signed an agreement with GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy regarding the cooperation on potential deployment applications for GEH’s BWRX-300 small modular reactor in Poland. In late 2020, Synthos Green Energy (SGE) was founded and started an initial regulatory dialogue with the polish nuclear regulator PAA.
In June 2021, Synthos S.A. and ORLEN signed a cooperation agreement on the development and implementation of zero-emission MMR and SMR nuclear technologies.
In August 2021, CEOs of Synthos and ZE PAK announced the joint project regarding the implementation of 4 to 6 SMR type reactors with a capacity of 300 MW each in Pątnów, Konin.
Notice that currently this project was cancelled and replaced by the plan to deploy 2 Korean APR-1400 reactors at the same location - we will get to this.
In September 2021, SGE and CIECH S.A. signed the MoU on cooperation in the use of SMR (Small Modular Reactors) and MMR (Micro Modular Reactors) technologies at CIECH production plants.
In October 2022, ZE PAK cancelled the agreement with SGE about the Pątnów project.
Sources:
https://www.gov.pl/web/paa/paa-prowadzi-wstepny-dialog-regulacyjny-z-synthos-green-energy-sa
ORLEN SYNTHOS GREEN ENERGY phase
OSGE was founded in 2022 as a jont venture between ORLEN and Synthos to deploy a fleet of BWRX-300s in Poland and Central Europe.
The CEO of ORLEN, Daniel Obajtek made two anouncments: On 31st of January 2023, he declared a plan to deploy 76 BWRX-300 units in 26 locations. The next day this announcement was corrected to 79 units at 25 locations. It wa also added, that the whole fleet will become operational till 2038, and the first unit will be deployed in 2028.
Now again, it should be noted that the year 2028 is not possible due to the time needed to obtain all necessary permits. However, it can be assumed that the year 2030 is theoretically possible, if the construction time does not exceed the promised 3,5 years.
It should also be noted, that such a large amount of nuclear energy, almost 22 GW, will be very difficult to finance - especially in the face of many competing nuclear projects and the dynamic development of RES, even with the demand doubling or tripling.
At the end, we may count 79 promised units in 25 locations, but we must be aware, that it is unlikely that all considered locations will be used, so the final number of units may be significantly smaller that the announced 79.
The first 8 locations were published on 17th April, 2023, and indlude:
Włocławek, Ostrołęka, Warszawa, Stawy Monowskie, Kraków-Nowa Huta, Stalowa Wola-Tarnobrzeg and Dąbrowa Górnicza.
Soon after that, 6 applictions for the “fundamental decision” or “decision-in-principle” (Decyzja Zasadnicza in PL) were requested - all except Warsaw.
In May 2023, PAA has been issued the first general opinion for the BWRX-300 SMR.
In April and August OSGE submitted early applications to GDOŚ (General Director for Environmental Protection) for an Environmental Decisions: first for Stawy Monowskie near Oświęciem (close to the main Synthos factory), then for Włocławek (close to ANWIL, one of ORLEN factories) and for Ostrołęka, close to the ORLEN’s CCGT power plant under construction. The applications indluded the Environmental Scoping Reports.
Notice, that those are not yet the full EIA reports - as the results of this applications, GSOŚ will set the scope of the actual EIA report. The field researches lasting two years is still needed to be taken.
GDOŚ launched an administrative proceeding for Stawy Monowskie in June, for Włocławek in August and for Ostrołęka in the beginning of September.
At Stawy Monowskie and Ostrołęka OSGE is planning to deploy up to 4 BWRX-300 units in each location, and at Włocławek up to 6 BWRX-300 units.
For the first project called Stawy Monowskie, at the end of August, GDOŚ also set the preliminary the cross-border Espoo consultations witch Czechia, Slovakia and Austria. This process may last till the end of 2023.
You may find the full OSGE story on their twitter (X) profile.
In the meantime, OSGE registered 19 companies Which names are quite telling as to the considered locations. In addition to the ones announced in April 2023: Stawy Monowskie, Włocławek, Tarnobrzeg, Ostrołęka, Nowa Huta, Stalowa Wola, Dąbrowa Górnicza and Warsaw, new sites include,: Poznań, Bełchatów, Grudziądz, Łódź, Kozienice, Kujawy, Łaziska, Rybnik, Pomerania, Warta and Połaniec.
It should be emphasized that 3 of the subsequent sites are indicated as the next location in the government program for the construction of classic large nuclear units. These are Bełchatów, Połaniec and Kozienice. Due to this fact, at least one of these locations will have to be dropped from the small reactors locations list.
Sources:
https://www.parkiet.com/energetyka/art35695011-pkn-orlen-i-synthos-zakladaja-atomowa-spolke
https://serwisy.gazetaprawna.pl/energetyka/artykuly/8650070,orlen-obajtek-76-smr-reaktory.html
https://twitter.com/ORLEN_Synthos/status/1647911578459684864
https://twitter.com/ORLEN_Synthos/status/1651600584414228480
https://osge.com/osge-z-ogolna-opinia-prezesa-paa-dotyczaca-reaktora-bwrx-300/
https://nuclear.pl/wiadomosci,news,23061901,0,0.html
https://biznesalert.pl/lista-lokalizacje-male-reaktory-jadrowe-smr-orlen-synthos-polska/
https://biznesiklimat.gazetaprawna.pl/eko-rozmowy/8655210,berger-elektrownie-atomowa-energetyka.html
https://www.gov.pl/web/gdos/zawiadomienie-generalnego-dyrektora-ochrony-srodowiska-z-30-sierpnia-2023-r-znak-doos-wdszoo420232023aka15
Rolls-Royce 470MWe 1358MWth
In February 2023, Rolls-Royce SMR and Polish group Industria have signed a Memorandum of Intent (MoU) to collaborate on deployment of the small modular reactors (SMRs) in the country. There could be "up to three" SMRs as part of this scheme, that aims to decarbonise regional energy infrastructure. Rolls-Royce SMR declared that there may also be "opportunities to replace more than 8GW of coal-fired power plants in southern Poland with SMRs throughout the 2030s".
In July 2023, the firs site was published: Kostrzyń - Słubise SSE (near the border with Germany).
Despite the mentioned possibility of implementing over 8GW, we count only the officially announced 3 units.
Note that if there will really be significantly more than 3 RR units, tthey could pose noticeable competition to large atom and OSGE projects.
Sources:
https://sksmkielce.pl/sgp-industria-i-rolls-royce-smr/
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Poland-s-Industria-selects-Rolls-Royce-SMR-for-hyd
https://industria.eu/podpisano-list-intencyjny-dotyczacy-pierwszej-lokalizacji-smr/
Finally, the large Atom.
AP1000 1110MWe 3415 MWth
The story starts in 2015 with the early environmental applications, same as the ones OSGE made in 2023. The full EIA Report was submitted in the beginning of 2022, and soon after that, the cross-border Espoo consultations started. The EIA report decided on the technology long before the government did it officially.
For now there already is the positive “fundamental decision” or “decision-in-principle” (Decyzja Zasadnicza in PL), and also positive PAA opinion for the technology.
Soon (this fall) we expect PEJ to receive the Environmental permit and the location decision. Issuing of those 2 documents will allow PEJ to start the preparation construction works in the spring 2024, but the standard construction permit will also be needed for those works.
Sources:
https://biznesalert.pl/radomski-co-zawiera-ocena-oddzialywania-atomu-w-polsce-na-srodowisko-analiza/
https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1586073854597746688
https://www.green-news.pl/3019-polska-wybrala-technologie-dla-atomu-padlo-na-usa
https://www.gov.pl/web/paa/ogolna-opinia-prezesa-paa-w-sprawie-wniosku-pej
https://biznesalert.pl/elektrownia-jadrowa-polska-pomorze-usa-ap1000-decyzja-srodowiskowa-wybory/
APR-1400 1455MWe 3983MWth
The story starts when the SGE-ZE PAK JV project was cancelled. On the same day, 31 October 2022, a new MoU was signed between The Ministry of State Assets, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of Korea, Polish energy companies ZE PAK and PGE, together with the Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP), to deploy a NPP in Pątnów, Konin, based on Korean APR-1400 technology. At the beginning it Said to be of 2 to 4 units, but later it was limited to only 2 units.
In April 2023, the JV PGE PAK Energia Jądrowa S.A. was founded.
In August 2023 PGE PAK filed for “fundamental decision” or “decision-in-principle” (Decyzja Zasadnicza in PL), specifying in the application that he intends to build 2 blocks.
Sources:
In a summary
Map map of possible locations for the nuclear projects that have requested for the fundamental decision
Green: PEJ with AP100
Red: KGHM with NuScale(TBD)
Blue: OSGE with BWRX 300
Pink: PGE PAK with APR1400
Yellow: LastEnergy
Clarification: In this paper we made several subjective assumptions while counting and classifying, results of which are presented below (for example Rolls Royce units are counted as “large” as they have significantly more capacity than 300MW)
Note, that for the second location of the government-led nuclear program the question whether to choose 2 EPR instead of 3 AP1000 is still open (and this is not reflected in the tables below)
There is not enough information to precisely pinpoint opening years for every plant, and there are many risks that should be considered, but lets try to make some educated guesses.
For the 7 officially announced locations we estimated the years of the deployment for each unit, assuming one-year delay relative to the first one in given location. All BWRX-300 without the officially announced locations are temporarily set for 2036 and 2038 in the table below. Part of them may be deployed sooner or later than assumed, but also part of them may never be deployed.
Despite the 3 locations of Last Energy projects announced by the ministry, it has been counted only 2 as there has been only 2 investment declarations, therefore both of the projects are assigned to the cities where the investors come from. There are no informations which location belongs to which investor or how many reactor are planned in those locations.
Now you now what is real, and what is “made-up”.
We hope this table clears up media hype and misinformation, surrounding the subject of polish nuclear power plants.
There is one last thing to notice:
The government nuclear project of AP1000 in Choczewo municipality is already one-year delayed, but nobody wants to admit this. All the major steps that were taken are already a year behind the official schedule. Also, the assumption that the construction process will last only 6 years per unit seems like an overly-optimistic one compared to the construction time of AP1000 units in China.
Hence, it is rather unlikely that the first polish AP1000 will be commissioned in 2033, with the 2035 being a much more realistic date. So it seems like the chances of OSGE's first BWRX-300 or Azoty's MMR being launched significantly earlier than governmental AP1000 are really high.
Tranlation of the graphic below:
Reactor technology selection- Should have taken place in 2021, happened in late 2022;
Environmental permit (includes the EIA and Espoo)- should have been done in 2022, will be most probably ready this fall (2023)
Signing a contract with the technology supplier – should have been done in 2022, the first part of three (early design phase) signed in February 2023, the remaining parts are still the future.
Preliminary construction works – should have begun in 2023, will maybe start in 2024
.